This weekend once again features dueling cards, with Showtime offering up a fantastic rematch in Hidalgo, Texas, and a pay-per-view from Chicago that I can’t imagine is going to draw a lot of buys.

I’ll start with the PPV. Erik Morales is once again moving up to 135 pounds and this time he’s challenging David Diaz for the WBC lightweight title. First of all, let me say I am a big Erik Morales fan. He always fights with everything he’s got, and he’s provided us with more entertaining fights than I can even remember. Having said that, I firmly believe he is a shot fighter. Morales has lost three fights in a row, and four out of five. Two of those losses were by devastating knockout to Manny Pacquiao. In Morales’ only other venture to 135 pounds, he was beaten by Zahir Raheem in an ugly contest.

But it’s the last fight against Pacquiao that made my decision for me. The look on Morales face when he was sent to the canvas in the third round said it all. Morales was clearly saying that he didn’t want to fight anymore. Once I see that look from a fighter, I can never have faith in them again. I saw that same look from Acelino Freitas, and it’s the same look we saw from Mike Tyson against Danny Williams. I think that once a fighter reaches a certain level, he can’t come back. Morales has been through too many battles, particularly with Marco Antonio Barrera and Pacquiao. I think Morales is in the Arturo Gatti range of ring miles, and that is not a good thing.

As for Diaz, well, he’s probably the third best Diaz in this weight class and taking a big step up in class, as he really hasn’t faced anyone of consequence before. His last win, against Jose Armando Santa Cruz was a good win and is how he got the WBC belt. But most importantly, his body lacks the miles Morales’ has, and he hasn’t been on the bad end of a brutal beating in his last two fights. Diaz has fought most of his career at welterweight and light-welterweight, so I think he’ll have a noticeable strength advantage in this fight.

I think Morales has too much heart and natural ability to get blown out by a guy like Diaz. But I don’t think Morales has enough in him to hurt Diaz, nor the ability to win enough rounds at this weight and this point in his career. I think it might be an entertaining fight, but Diaz should come out on top. Prediction: Diaz TKO 10.

In the Showtime fight, we have Fight of the Year potential. Rafael Marquez and Israel Vasquez fought on March 3 of this year, with Marquez winning a very exciting match. Vasquez broke his nose and chose not to continue after the seventh round, but it was seven rounds of action. Marquez was dropped in the third round, as both men showed they can hurt the other. The first fight was full of two-way action and was as good as advertised, and I expect nothing less this time.

Since they fought before, there’s no need for a full preview. It’s simple- both can punch, Marquez is a better boxer, probably a better all-around fighter; Vasquez has better power. Neither one has great defense. That is an equation that cannot equal disappointment. I think once again Marquez will be the better fighter in the ring, but he has a tendency to get caught with big punches. Vasquez definitely hurt him in the first fight, but Marquez did a great job buying time until he recovered.

I think Marquez is the better fighter of the two. But I also think he can be caught. I expect this fight to go almost exactly the same as the first fight. Assuming no broken noses, I expect both fighters to kiss the canvas, and probably a decent amount of blood. Marquez should win this fight by breaking Vasquez down once again, but I can’t help but think Vasquez is going to catch him with that left again. Prediction: My heart says Vasquez by KO, but my head says Marquez KO 8.

*In the same weight class as Marquez and Vasquez, and on the same card, Celestino Caballero will defend his WBA title against Jorge Lacierva. Should be an easy win for Caballero, but he may be in line to face the winner of the main event or the winner of Rey Bautista and Daniel Ponce de Leon, who fight each other next week. Caballero gave Ponce de Leon his only professional loss. Just something to watch for.

**By the way, how the hell is it possible that Erik Morales is only 30-years old? Seriously, that’s not possible.

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