Finally, the beginning of an amazing 11 week stretch of boxing matchups has arrived. After several cancellations in the past month, it seems that a major fight will actually take place. This weekend is the much anticipated middleweight championship fight between Jermain “Bad Intentions” Taylor and Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik.

This fight opened as a pick ‘em, but the money has since made Taylor a slight favorite, coming in at -125, to Pavlik’s +100. This is a tough fight to handicap, since Pavlik has a unique and difficult style, and Taylor hasn’t fought a right-hander that is willing to fight in several years.

I think with both fighters, we know what we are getting. Pavlik is a volume puncher with very good power that will come forward no matter what. Taylor is a fighter who is better than average at both boxing and punching, but not great at either. Taylor will likely move backwards in this fight, not only because of Pavlik’s pressure, but because that is how Taylor creates distance and sets up his offense.

The biggest question in this fight is how Taylor will handle Pavlik’s volume. Pavlik likes to throw nearly 100 punches a round, and Taylor is not used to that. If the fight goes 12 rounds, you can bet Pavlik will have thrown over 1,000 punches, while Taylor is more comfortable in the 500-600 punch range. If Taylor is not overwhelmed by the sheer number of punches coming at him, then he can control the fight. If he doesn’t have a way to deal with the constant barrage, he is in trouble.

The next biggest question in this fight is how Pavlik will deal with a big step up in class. His biggest win by far has been against Edison Miranda, a fighter that is not on the level of Jermain Taylor. Taylor has been in the ring with fighters like Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright, and he’s still undefeated. Disputed or not, he at the very least fought right with those two fighters, and while some think he lost them all, others believe he won them all. Taylor is used to this stage, while Pavlik is not. Taylor is now a veteran, and will be prepared for anything Pavlik has in his arsenal.

So the question becomes, will Taylor be able to do what he’s told to do in this fight by his trainer, Emanuel Steward. In his past few fights, he’s struggled with that. We’ve seen that when Taylor fights smart, he can beat anyone. When he gets lackadaisical, he is very beatable. We’ve never seen Pavlik in the ring with such a talented, well-rounded fighter, and this will definitely be his biggest test.

The way I see things happening is like this…

Pavlik will come out throwing bombs, and throwing lots of them. Pavlik has one gear, and that is “go”. He will throw lots of punches, regardless of what’s coming back at him or how tired he gets. Taylor will slug with him early, but I think that Manny Steward will get him to create distance and time the straight right hand as the fight goes on.

One of Jermain’s strongest punches in his last three fights has been his lead right hand as his opponent is walking in. Taylor likes to be moving backwards, but not in a “pushed around” way, but in a “creating distance” way. I think as the fight moves on, Taylor will be able to time Pavlik’s attacks and land that right hand as he’s walking in. I think that that punch, in addition to the jab, is the key to Taylor retaining his titles.

My fear if I’m a Pavlik supporter is that he isn’t preparing a plan ‘B’. He strikes me as too green to understand that his style may not dictate the fight. If he gets in the ring and is getting jabbed and countered, he may not have another plan. I don’t expect it to be as bad as Wright-Trinidad, but that’s what I mean. When a fighter expects the fight to go one way, and it doesn’t, he needs to have a plan ‘B’. Some fighters just don’t do this, and Pavlik strikes me as that type. He’s never had a fight where he didn’t have his style dictate the action. If Taylor is boxing well, and Pavlik isn’t landing big punches, he might need to adjust, and I don’t think he can.

If Pavlik wins this fight, I think it will either be by mid-round knockout, or one-sided decision, as his style will either work, or it won’t. I don’t see much middle ground from Pavlik’s side.

For Taylor to win, he has to avoid big punches, and counter Pavlik early and often. He needs to do whatever it takes to get Pavlik’s punch output down in the 600-700 punch range for 12 rounds. He needs to rediscover his jab, and time the straight right hand as Pavlik is coming in.

One thing I’m sure of in this fight is that Pavlik will be the one moving forward and Taylor backwards. If Taylor can stay off the ropes, I think he’s the better fighter. His hands speed will show to be much better than Pavlik’s, but he doesn’t want to get into a slugfest.

I think Taylor is the more well-rounded fighter, and has a huge edge in experience on the main stage, and I think he’s got the better trainer. Pavlik is a great fighter, but I think Taylor gets the best of him in this fight. I like Taylor to out box Pavlik, and break him down in the middle to late rounds. My prediction is that Taylor wins by either late round TKO, or comfortable decision in the 116-112 range.

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