The amazing end of year boxing schedule rolls on this weekend as the welterweights take the stage with Miguel Cotto taking on Shane Mosley at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Of all of the great matchups this year, this may be the best individual matchup, with the highest potential for fireworks.

Both of these fighters have proven themselves to be the elite of the elite, Mosley with a better career resume, but Cotto the younger, action fighter. There is no doubt that this will be an entertaining fight, with the potential for Fight of the Year. It is a very tough fight to handicap, as they are both quite different stylistically.

Cotto has shown that he is without a doubt an elite fighter. While he’s shown at times to be a bit chinny, he has also showed amazing resiliency to get off the canvas and win fights. He has impressed me every time he’s stepped up in competition, most recently with his knockout win over Zab Judah in June. Mosley will be his stiffest test yet, and if he wins this, he belongs in the conversation of top pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

As for Mosley, many people considered his career done two years ago. After his second win against Oscar De La Hoya in 2003, he suffered back-to-back defeats at the hands of Winky Wright in 2004. Since those losses, Mosley is 5-0, including a pair of knockout wins over Fernando Vargas, and seems to be back at 147 pounds for good. A win here for Mosley puts him right back in the picture for best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, where he was in 2001.

Picking a winner for this fight is not easy to do. Both fighters are exceptional at what they do. Cotto is a great inside fighter and a devastating body puncher. He is relentless, and has broken down every opponent he’s ever faced. Mosley is lightning fast and also has power. He is a slick boxer with a great defense, and tremendously underrated power. He also has the advantage of being in more big fights.

I see this fight starting off very similarly to the Cotto-Judah fight, with Cotto methodically trying to break down Mosley, while Mosley is the faster and more active fighter early on. The key to this fight, just like any Cotto fight, is whether or not Cotto can get to the body and slow Shane down. Cotto will have to find a way to take Mosley’s legs away from him, since Mosley has the height, reach, speed, defense, and boxing skill advantages. Cotto must find a way to make Shane stand in front of him if he wants to win.

Mosley’s game plan will be to keep distance and not allow Cotto to walk him down. He must avoid the ropes and stay in the middle of the ring. Most of the boxing advantages go to Mosley. He is probably better than Cotto at every aspect of the sport. But he’s 36 years old, and probably not physically as strong as Cotto. Mosley’s conditioning (which has never been an issue) will be a key factor in this fight.

I really like watching Cotto fight, but every time I do, I see giant holes in his game. I still think he has a weak chin, and I suspect that a boxer who knows when to trade with him, and when to avoid him will do quite well. Mosley is a very smart fighter, and as I said earlier, has very underrated power.

I think in this fight Mosley will hurt Cotto early, just as Judah did. Cotto will come right back and continue to press Mosley, trying to break him down. Over the course of the fight, I think Shane’s speed and defense will prove too much for the younger Cotto. I expect Mosley to settle into a rhythm by the sixth or seventh round and begin picking his shots. Once Cotto has to start actively looking for the knockout, he’ll become vulnerable. I think Mosley wins a comfortable decision or wins via late round stoppage. No matter who wins, this fight has Fight of the Year written all over it. This fight is a can’t miss as far as action goes. Official prediction: Mosley TKO 11.

*****
In other boxing predictions…

Cruiserweights are also in action on Saturday, as Jean-Marc Mormeck defends his WBA and WBC cruiserweight titles against David Haye. This is another fight that has action-packed written all over it. Both fighters throw bombs and have questionable defenses, a potent combination in boxing.

Mormeck is the champ who regained his titles from O’Neil Bell in March after a pair of slugfests, while Haye is the 27-year old up-and-comer from the UK. In 20 career fights, Haye has only once heard the scorecards read.

I think Mormeck is a good fighter, but not as good as he was before his two wars with Bell. Haye is the younger fighter that throws with some power. I think Mormeck is getting near the end of his career and has obvious conditioning issues. Despite not having seen much from Haye, I’m picking him to take Mormeck’s titles by KO. Official Prediction: Haye KO 6.

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