Boxing

Pacquiao vs. Marquez II Preview

Finally, nearly four years later, Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez will step into the ring to finish what they started. Pacquiao and Marquez battled to a controversial draw in May of 2004, and will square off once again this weekend to finish what they started.

The first fight was a great one, although not without some controversy. Pacquiao dropped Marquez three times in the first round of that fight, then Marquez went on to outbox the Filipino for most of the next 11 rounds. The controversy lies in the fact that one of the judges scored the first round 10-7, while the other two rightfully scored it 10-6. Had that third judge also called it a 10-6 round as he likely should have, Pacquiao would have won a split decision, as that judge scored the bout even.

The other half of the controversy is that one judge had Pacquiao ahead 115-110 after the fight. How you can give Pacquiao seven rounds to me is a bit shady, as Marquez clearly outboxed Pacquiao from the third round on. While that bit is not nearly as controversial, I didn’t like it — so I’m calling it controversial.

Since their first fight, Pacquiao has won seven out of eight fights, including two wins over Eric Morales and one over Marco Antonio Barrera. To be fair, the third fight with Morales and the last one with Barrera were against shadows of their former selves. In Pacquiao’s loss to Morales he was dominated, and his win in the rematch is by far his best win since the first meeting with Barrera in 2003. Pacquiao also racked up three meaningless wins against outclassed opponents since the first fight.

Marquez has won six of seven fights since Pacquiao I, including also beating Barrera. His loss came in a fight he never should have taken against the very good Chris John. Marquez was stripped of his IBF belt before this fight since no promoter would promote his mandatory, then took this fight in Indonesia for very little money to challenge for John’s WBA belt. Marquez subsequently went to Indonesia, fought relatively uninspired boxing, was deducted two points and lost a fairly wide decision. His other five fights since the first Pacquiao fight were against relative nobodies.

In spite of their heavily inflated resumes, Pacquiao and Marquez continue to climb in most pound-for-pound rankings, with many having Pacquiao at either number one or two. Us fine folks here at lukekohler.com have Pacquiao ranked number five, and Marquez number six. Regardless of where they are ranked amongst all fighters, there is very little doubt that they are the top two super-featherweights in the world.

I have said in the past that I think Manny Pacquiao is quite overrated by many in boxing, but I still think he is an outstanding fighter. Not only is he talented, but he seems like good people and is always exciting (minus Barrera II). I have no issue with Pacquiao, I just think he gets a little too much kudos sometimes.

I also think that Marquez is a great fighter, but I think he has major problems with his management and his mentality. The Chris John fight is an example of issues I have with how he is handled, as is the fact that he turned down an immediate rematch with Pacquiao for financial reasons, only to fight John for peanuts. His mentality seems a bit weak to me, as shown by his lackluster performance in Indonesia, and his getting dropped three times in the first by Pacquiao, which I blame on unpreparedness.

Personal feelings aside, I expect this fight to be outstanding. It may not have the pure excitement that we saw in the first round of the first fight, but I think this fight has a chance to look a lot like Pacquiao-Morales I, but less one-sided.

This is a classic styles matchup kind of fight. Pacquiao is the better slugger and left-handed, while Marquez is the craftier boxer and a righty. Speed is close, but I give a slight edge to Pacquiao. Both have good chins, but Marquez has appeared to have been hurt more, at least recently. He was dropped by Barrera and three times by Pacquiao, while Pacquiao hasn’t been down in over eight years, as far as I can tell.

I would expect this fight to play out very similarly to the first fight, as far as styles go. Pacquiao will be the more aggressive fighter, and as long as he lands punches, he’ll be in control. Marquez is the much better counterpuncher, and if Pacquiao gets too aggressive, Marquez will tag him. Marquez might not have the power that Manny has, but he can still punch and he’ll make Pacquiao pay for his mistakes.

The key to this fight is going to be Marquez’s discipline. If Marquez can keep his distance and counterpunch, he’ll take Pacquiao out of his comfort zone. If you make Pacquiao try to win by boxing, you can beat him. If Marquez gets cocky or over-aggressive himself, he might end up on the canvas again. I would imagine that this fight will have a bit of both, Pacquiao paying for coming in wild, and Marquez getting caught because he lost his discipline.

Since this fight was announced, I’ve gone back and forth on a prediction. I have a feeling that Pacquiao catches Marquez with something again and if he does, I think he is talented enough now to finish him. Unfortunately for Marquez, I think he may need to get knocked down to remember he’s a better boxer and to just counterpunch all night. The question will be — if Marquez gets knocked down again, does he get up again? And if he gets up again, does he take over the fight again.

I think this is a true pick ‘em fight, so I would say that I do like Marquez as a nearly 2-to-1 underdog. I don’t know if he’ll win the fight, but he is great value at those odds.

The first time they fought, I like Pacquiao big. This time, I still lean a little to Pacquiao, but Marquez proved to me that if his head is in it, he’s a better fighter than Manny Pacquiao. I’ll take a chance that Marquez brings his ‘A’ game and pick the slight upset.

Prediction: Marquez by Split Decision

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