Weekend Boxing Preview

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Filed on April 11th, 2008 in Boxing, Picks ⋅ ⋅

There’s a big weekend of boxing on both HBO and SHOWTIME this week, featuring a bunch of light-heavyweights and a bunch of welterweights. HBO will feature a double header with Miguel Cotto vs. Alfonso Gomez, and Kermit Cintron vs. Antonio Margarito; while SHOWTIME will have a light-heavyweight twin-bill featuring Clinton Woods vs. Antonio Tarver, and Glen Johnson vs. Chad Dawson. With a fight weekend this deep, I am only giving each fight a brief preview.

The Welterweights

Cotto vs. Gomez

A real-life contender against a television contender, if you will. Miguel Cotto is the obvious choice for second best welterweight in the world, and some would say you have a solid argument calling him the best. Gomez is a guy that was on The Contender back in the first season, losing to Peter Manfredo, Jr. and has since gone on to put together back-to-back wins against past their primes Arturo Gatti and Ben Tackie. Cotto comes in off of wins against Shane Mosley and Zab Judah.

While I think that Gomez has a future as a decent to good welterweight, Cotto has a future as possibly the best welterweight in the world. I’ve bet against Cotto more times than I care to admit, and obviously lost every one of those bets. When you watch him fight, you can see where Cotto can get beat. Both Judah and Mosley were able to take advantage of his flaws and hurt Cotto, while Mosley was also able to outbox him in big stretches.

The problem with beating Cotto is that he seems to have absolutely no emotion, and fights like a machine. If you hurt him or outbox him, he just keeps walking forward, working the body, until eventually, he either knocks you out or breaks your will. And once he breaks your will, he will likely knock you out. Since reaching the elite level, the only men he didn’t knock out were Mosley and Paulie Malignaggi, both of whom he was unable to mentally defeat.

Gomez has his work cut out for him in many ways. First off, I think he lacks the general boxing skill to outfight Cotto. Second, I think he lacks the mental strength to outlast Cotto’s machine like work.

While I do think Cotto is very beatable, I have a hard time seeing how Gomez will do it. Prediction: Cotto TKO 6.

Cintron vs. Margarito

Since meeting three years ago this month, Kermit Cintron and Antonio Margarito’s careers have gone in different directions. Margarito outclassed, outboxed, and knocked out Cintron when they first met, and became known as “the most feared man in boxing.” Cintron was seen as an overrated fighter who needed to prove himself all over.

After the April 2005 meeting, Margarito had a first round KO over Manuel Gomez, then looked far from spectacular against Joshua Clottey. Against Clottey, Margarito was clearly getting the worst of it early on, before Clottey broke his hand. At that point, Margarito took control, but you could see there were chinks in the armor. His following fight was against another hot prospect in Paul Williams. In a solid back-and-forth action fight, Williams came out on top, putting Margarito in no man’s land — to dangerous to fight, not big enough to make it worth the risk.

As for Cintron, he has now won five straight fights. The most notable of them all was against Walter Matthysse, who Cintron defeated via devastating second round knockout. In his last fight however, Cintron looked damn near awful, before finally stopping Jesse Feliciano in the 10th round. Cintron came out of that fight with an injured hand, which he says happened in the first round, which would help explain his performance. After four months off, this will be his first fight back.

It’s easy to say one of two things. Either they are still the same fighters, and we should expect a similar result (Margarito wins), or they are going in different directions, and we should expect a different result (Cintron wins). I thought going into the first fight that Cintron was a better fighter than Margarito, and probably still do. I think Margarito is a very vanilla fighter — solid chin, average speed, average power, and does nothing exceptionally well. I think Cintron has all of these qualities as well, only changing power from average to very good — with great one-punch power.

The big question in this fight is can Cintron hurt Margarito? Only two men have ever gone the distance with Cintron, and as far as I can tell, Margarito has never really been hurt. If Cintron can’t hurt Margarito, I don’t think he can win on points.

Having said that, I don’t think Margarito has the heart or desire that he had going into the first fight with Cintron. Cintron is one more win away from landing a fight with a cat like Cotto. In an otherwise pick ‘em fight, I’ll take that intangible to make my decision. Prediction: Cintron KO 8.

The Light Heavyweights

Woods vs. Tarver

This one I can sum up in one sentence: Clinton Woods is still good, and Antonio Tarver isn’t. Woods has won six straight fights, all against legitimate opponents. Tarver has won two straight against absolute nobodies — one of which he very well may have lost.

Tarver’s last meaningful win — other than the decision he stole against Rocky — was at least three years ago. But that depends on what you call meaningful. I don’t consider the third fight with Roy Jones (where I thought he was outboxed, just not outworked) really meaningful. I suppose if you made me choose, I’d go with his win over Glen Johnson in three summers ago. That’s a decent win. The only really great win he has ever had was landing a fluke punch against Roy Jones, Jr.

While this fight is a pick ‘em for gambling purposes, I think Woods has an edge in every aspect of this fight. The only thing Tarver has going for him is the same thing that got him to where he is, long and lefty. I think Woods handles this, and coasts to a victory, and Tarver will fade of into Bolivia, to quote Mike Tyson. Prediction: Woods unanimous decision.

Dawson vs. Johnson

While he may not be the most famous, Chad Dawson may be the most talented light-heavyweight in the game. Glen Johnson is a true workhorse that fights often and seemingly forever. At 39-years old, I give him credit for longevity and ageless-ness, but he’s not the best light-heavyweight in the world.

The question in this match is how Johnson’s veteran style will be handled by the relatively green Dawson. At 25, Dawson doesn’t have a whole lot on his resume yet. His best wins were against Tomasz Adamek and Eric Harding, both fights he won by wide decisions but was also knocked down in.

Johnson is crafty, and he’ll have something up his sleeve for the kid. But at the end of the night, I think 14 years is a large age difference, and Dawson will simply outbox the veteran. Prediction: Dawson unanimous decision.

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