When you hear the phrase “styles make fights,” this is the fight they are talking about.

I have been waiting patiently for this fight all year. As much as I loved the brilliant fights we had in March, including Marquez-Vazquez III, and Marquez-Pacquiao II, Bernard Hopkins and Joe Calzaghe is the fight I’ve been waiting for. This is a classic boxing match, with styles that exemplify the “sweet science” of boxing.

And the beauty is that HBO has stepped up and put this fight on regular HBO, rather than HBO Pay-Per-View. While it might not be the most exciting fight they could air for free, it’s a pleasant surprise and a nice reward for true boxing fans

Hopkins is a throwback kind of fighter — crafty, slick, great defense, great chin, and dirty when he needs to be. He’ll never overwhelm you with power, but he hits hard enough to get your attention.

Calzaghe is a matchup nightmare for any boxer — tremendous workrate, left-handed, great defense, great chin, and amazing hand speed.

If you’ve ever handicapped a fight based only on styles, I think this is the kind of fight you do it for.

Calzaghe enters this fight unbeaten in 44 fights, with 32 knockouts. His most recent win over Mikkel Kessler was one of his most impressive victories, as the fight was practically a pick ‘em, and Calzaghe cruised to a comfortable decision. Kessler is a very skilled fighter, and for him to say that Calzaghe “spoiled his boxing” says a lot about how Calzaghe can dictate a fight and make an opponent fight on his terms.

As for Hopkins, he has been beaten just four times, once to Roy Jones, Jr., twice to Jermain Taylor, and once in his pro debut. I never saw Hopkins’ first loss, and I don’t count it as meaning anything, being his pro debut and having been 20 years ago. The Jones loss was against the best fighter of this generation, nearly in his prime. The two losses to Taylor were partly because of a poor style matchup. That’s what Bernard faces in this fight as well, I feel.

The main difference in styles in this fight is their work rates. Calzaghe throws 1000 punches a fight, and Hopkins is lucky to approach a third of that. In Hopkins’ last fight against Winky Wright, he threw over 600 punches, but in the three prior fights he only topped 400 once. He threw 417 against Antonio Tarver in a win, and just 371 and 326. Those are drastic differences, and if neither man can hurt the other, which may be the case, work rate my decide rounds.

If it were just that simple, I’d be done with the preview and say that Calzaghe coasts to a wide decision by outworking Hopkins. But no Hopkins fight is that easy to handicap.

Hopkins is no stranger to being an underdog, and he’s an underdog in this fight. Just like he was against Felix Trinidad in 2001, and Tarver in 2006. And for my money, those are his two most impressive performances. In fact, you could argue that those are his two only impressive performances. Most of his middleweight title run was against average competition. He lost badly to Jones, closely to Taylor twice, beat an out-of-his-element Wright at 175 pounds, and racked up a lot of wins against guys who really won’t be remembered in the next generation. But the way he performed in the two fights he was supposed to lose is not to be shrugged off.

When all is said and done, this is just a bad matchup for Hopkins. How do you beat a man that will throw more punches than you and be quicker than you when you can’t hurt him? That is the mountain that Hopkins has to climb. Calzaghe’s people are afraid that Hopkins will resort to fouling and fighting dirty if things aren’t going his way. I can see that as a possibility, but with Freddie Roach in his corner, I’m doubting it’s going to happen.

I think that Calzaghe dictates this whole fight. He’ll outwork Hopkins, and he’s a master defensively. This fight is almost guaranteed to go to the scorecards, and I just don’t see how Hopkins can win six or seven rounds. Calzaghe cruises in this one. Prediction: Calzaghe unanimous decision.

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