Oscar De La Hoya returns to regular, non pay-per-view HBO Saturday night to take on Steve Forbes in what most people consider a tune-up fight for Oscar before getting back in the ring with Floyd Mayweather, Jr. in September. Tune-up or not, Oscar is in with a man that he really shouldn’t be in there with.

Steve Forbes is a fine young fighter, but he’s not a welterweight, and he certainly shouldn’t be fighting above welterweight. This fight is taking place at a catchweight of 150, despite the fact that Oscar appeared to miss that mark by a half-pound at the weigh-in. Forbes has fought at 130 pounds as recently as four years ago, and the only times he’s ever fought above the junior-welterweight division was when participating in The Contender series at welterweight.

At just over 5′7″, Forbes is giving up three inches in height to the Golden Boy. De La Hoya, meanwhile, has fought at middleweight when Forbes was at super-featherweight. Having these two meet at 150 is asking a whole lot from Forbes.

Forbes is a solid fighter, and was terribly robbed two fights ago against Demetrius Hopkins. Not only did everyone who watched that fight score it for Forbes, they scored it widely for him. The scorecards however, said that Hopkins won by very wide margins. That fight was one of the worst boxing decisions of the last ten years, and with the win that he should have been credited for, Forbes would be considered a serious contender at junior-welterweight. Instead, he lucked into the De La Hoya sweepstakes and will get a massive payday for this fight.

Unfortunately for Forbes, he may need to knock Oscar out just to win a decision.

This fight has a lot of money riding on it, but Golden Boy Promotions needs a De La Hoya win. I’m not saying to expect a bad decision, but in all honesty, Forbes is going to have a hard time winning any close rounds. Forbes is fighting the uphill-est of all uphill battles in boxing.

Having said all that, Oscar is still a terrific boxer. Even if these two were naturally the same weight, I’d give Oscar the edge and pick him to win. De La Hoya has said that he anticipates a knockout, and that’s a legitimate possibility. The question will be if Oscar wants to try to put on an entertaining show and go for the knockout, or if he wants the twelve rounds of work.

Another interesting angle in this fight is that it marks the return of Floyd Mayweather, Sr. to De La Hoya’s corner as his trainer. If you’re looking for the storyline for Oscar-Floyd II, there it is. I think with Mayweather training him, Oscar is still a top-15 fighter in the world.

As I’ve said before, the promotion for this fight bothers me. For De La Hoya to say that he is “giving back” to his fans by fighting on regular HBO is insulting. By my math, it has cost boxing fans $2,731.20 each to watch all of Oscar’s fights since May of 1995. Obviously it’s not only to see Oscar, and it’s not a scientific calculation, but it’s also not unrealistic. To me, giving back would have been fighting on network television with a solid undercard. Fighting on HBO with high ticket prices to go to the fight is not “giving back” to me.

I think we’ll see the best Oscar in this fight, and I think he handles Forbes quite easily. The natural size difference will just be too much for Forbes to handle. I think after a slow start, Oscar finds his target and takes Forbes out in the middle rounds.

Prediction: De La Hoya TKO 8.

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