If you had asked me one year ago who would win this fight, I’d tell you without hesitation that Chad Dawson wins a one-sided decision against Antonio Tarver. Hell, if you asked me on April 11 who I thought would win, that would be my answer. But on April 12, both men appeared on the same card, and my opinion changed.

On April 12, Dawson squared off against cagey veteran Glen Johnson, and looked very average. He won the fight, but he was anything but convincing in his claim to being the future of the light-heavyweight division. As for Tarver, I expected him to show his age and lose on that same night against Clinton Woods. Tarver certainly surprised me by coming out and absolutely dominating Woods, claiming the IBF title in the process.

Other than his narrow win against Rocky, Tarver hadn’t had a meaningful victory since 2005, and looked to be finally on the downside of his career. But that fight against Woods showed that there was definitely more in the tank.

On one night, I began to question Dawson’s heir-apparentness, and question my own belief that Tarver was shot. Now the two meet up in the second most meaningful fight in this division this year. The winner of this fight is in position to challenge the winner of November’s Joe Calzaghe vs. Roy Jones fight for light-heavyweight supremacy. Since taking two out of three against Jones, Tarver is in a position where he may need a fourth fight to prove himself once more.

This matchup is intriguing, as both have similar fighting styles. Both Tarver and Dawson are tall left-handers, and both have similar strengths. The biggest storyline in this fight, when handicapping it, is the youth vs. experience angle. Does Dawson make Tarver look like a 39-year old, or does Tarver make Dawson look like 26-year old. It’s possible they both look their age, and we get a great fight, or they both look their age and we get a stinker.

We’ve seen greatness from both men, and we’ve unfortunately seen both of them show weaknesses. Dawson was cruising to the biggest win of his career in February 2007 against Tomasz Adamek, when Adamek caught him with a right-hand and dropped him. It was the first time we’d seen any chinks in Dawson’s armor, and since then, he fought two tune-ups, then the April bout with Johnson. In that fight, Dawson looked like a fighter that could be beaten, and if you pressured him, he didn’t like it a whole lot.

For Tarver, the key is going to be to put pressure on Dawson and force him backwards. Granted, there’s very few guys in the sport that can fight like Glen Johnson, but Tarver may have to do an imitation of him. Keeping Dawson going back is the key for Tarver.

As for Dawson, he needs to make Tarver pay if he’s going to do this. His 39-year old legs may not be able to take the stress of constant pressure, so if he tries it, you have to make him pay. Fight rough, clinch, and work the body. If you slow Tarver down, he gets very sluggish, as we saw when he fought Bernard Hopkins. Tarver likes to be in control, and if you take his control away, he becomes very beatable.

In the youth vs. experience matchups, there is never a way that you can always lean. Tarver isn’t exactly a crafty vet, but he has been in some big fights before. This is certainly the biggest fight of Dawson’s career to this point. I saw ways to beat Dawson the last time he fought, so you can be sure that Tarver did too.

I think this will be a technical boxing match, and the first three rounds may tell you who wins the fight. Whoever dictates their style, either Tarver coming forward and setting up combinations, or Dawson boxing smartly, keeping Tarver’s punch output low, will determine the fight, in my opinion. I expect a clean, scientific fight, but in the end, without too much confidence, I’m going to lean with experience to edge youth in a close fight.

Prediction: Tarver by split-decision.

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