If this fight were made between any two other fighters in the world, all things being equal, there would be outrage. But between Oscar De La Hoya’s promotional machine and Manny Pacquiao’s delusional fans, this fight is considered interesting. But make no mistake about it — there is nothing interesting about Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao.

In most of my previews, I try to examine the X’s and O’s of the match — the styles matchup, the fighter resumes and what each needs to do to win. In this preview, I will make no apologies for my bluntness.

Oscar De La Hoya will punish Manny Pacquiao.

It’s as simple as that. If anyone tries to break this fight down more deeply than that, they are wasting their breath.

But for the sake of argument, I’ll back up my prediction with some simple facts.

Fact One: Oscar De La Hoya is a better boxer than Manny Pacquiao.

Oscar may not be Sugar Ray Leonard, but he’s a guy who has outpointed Pernell Whitaker, Felix Trinidad and in many eyes, outboxed Shane Mosley. Pacquiao has no hint of boxing skill, just a mauling attack. He got toyed with by Juan Manuel Marquez in the first fight, embarrassed by Erik Morales in their first fight (it was close on the cards, but only because Morales decided to fight left-handed in the last round).

In a straight-up boxing match, Oscar wins.

Fact Two: Oscar has more power than Manny.

Not relative to their weight class, but in reality. Pacquiao has only once entered the ring over 130 pounds. He has gone the distance in two of his last three fights. Pacquiao can hurt small fighters, but Oscar is not going to stick his chin out like David Diaz, and even if he does, Pacquiao won’t be able to hurt him. Oscar has fought as high as 160, and his dominant knockout win over Ricardo Mayorga at 154 just two fights ago is all the proof you need to know that Oscar has more power. Ask yourself this: Could Manny Pacquiao knock out Ricardo Mayorga, or even drop him with one punch as Oscar did? The answer is no.

In a pure punch for punch brawl, Oscar wins.

Fact Three: Oscar has better defense than Manny.

That is, to say, Oscar has defense. Pacquiao’s idea of defense is to hit back harder than he just got hit. That won’t work against the big boys. Pacquiao has been in the ring with only three real fighters in his career, Marquez, Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Marquez hurt him, Morales hurt him and Barrera didn’t. Marquez and Morales were able to hit him at will. If Manny fights this fight defensively like he has in previous fights, he won’t see the third round. Oscar has been in with the best and the only time he’s ever been hurt was with a perfect body shot from Bernard Hopkins. And for the record, Pacquiao has been knocked out twice, both by men weighing less than 113 pounds.

When it comes to defending themselves, Oscar wins.

Fact Four: Oscar is too big for Manny.

It may be the calling cry of everyone who is against this fight, but the truth is the truth. Oscar has fought at 160, Pacquiao has been as high as 135. Sure, Pacquiao may eventually be a formidable welterweight, but right now, he is not. You wouldn’t pick Juan Manuel Marquez to win a fight at welterweight, would you? After watching what happened to Ricky Hatton in his fights at welterweight, as well as many others, you have to understand that the human body has limits. When you’re just 5′6″ tall, you can just add 15 pounds like it’s nothing.

Pacquiao will be the smaller man in the ring and he will struggle badly with the natural size difference.

Summary of Facts: Oscar De La Hoya, at this point in his career, has the advantage over Manny Pacquiao in every single category of boxing skill. You have to give Manny the edge in age, because that’s just simple mathematics, but I give him no edge anywhere else. Pacquiao will lose speed by going up in weight, and in the ring, I suspect Oscar to actually be faster than Manny, in addition to everything else that I’ve mentioned. I don’t think this fight is good for boxing, and I don’t think it will be a competitive fight. The first left hand that Oscar lands will trigger the Manilla Shuffle, followed by Pacquiao on his back.

Prediction: De La Hoya KO 3.

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