Several years ago, when Vince Young was a “sure thing” and the next future Hall of Fame quarterback to enter the draft, I spent many, many days trying to warn people of his future status as a draft bust.

And before you cry about his Pro Bowl and playoff appearances, let me assure you, he is a bust. He got to the playoffs on the back of a running game and a defense, and his Pro Bowl selection was based on his defense and running game leading the Titans to the playoffs, nothing else.

There’s a reason it was easy to see why Young wouldn’t make it in the NFL — he played in the Big 12.

Sure, it sounds simplistic, but really, it is. There are a few simple reasons why Big 12 quarterbacks don’t make it. In the next year or two, you are sure to see three of the best college quarterbacks of this generation fail at the next level. I’m talking, of course, about Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Graham Harrell and to a lesser extent, Chase Daniel and Zac Robinson.

Now, I know that these are all players that are being talked about as future stars in the NFL, but until I see any proof to the contrary, I will stick with the proof that exists, which tells me that they will all fail in the NFL.

Reason number one Big 12 quarterbacks fail in the NFL: Big 12 defenses.

In the Big 12, they play a very basic defense more often than not, allowing for very simple play calling on offense. These quarterbacks succeed because they have lightning fast receivers running wide open all over the field. All they have to do is be decent to light up these defenses, allowing them to all graduate with gaudy numbers, despite not having to prove that they can actually play the position.

Not only does this lead to great college stats, but it leads to quarterbacks being unable to read defenses and adjust at the next level. More often than not, Big 12 QBs fail mentally before they fail physically in the NFL. What happens when these quarterbacks face real defenses for the first time?

In this bowl season alone, we saw McCoy and Bradford completely shut down by Ohio State and Florida. Harrell put up good numbers, but if you watched the game, you saw he struggled against Mississippi.

Also, how often do you see NFL quarterbacks look to the sidelines for audibles and pre-snap reads? Never. Sam Bradford did it all night against Florida in the BCS title game. When you don’t get the opportunity to read defenses in college (or aren’t good at it), you won’t be prepared to do it in the NFL. That’s just a fact.

Reason number two Big 12 quarterbacks fail in the NFL: Pressure.

One of the main reasons that this happens is that Big 12 defenses are rarely able to get pressure on Big 12 quarterbacks, allowing them to throw at will. When a little pressure is applied, these quarterbacks all struggled.

When playing in the NFL, guys like Graham Harrell will have to adjust to being hit on every play. They will have to learn to throw on the run, throw the ball away, and throw accurately under pressure.

Most of these guys can pull this off here and there, but none of them do it consistently. It’s a whole new skill set to throw under pressure, and one that they will all have to learn on the job in the NFL. Vince Young survived because that’s his only skill, but his throwing inability will be what runs him out of a job soon enough.

Reason number three Big 12 quarterbacks fail in the NFL: Shotgun Formations.

How often do you see NFL teams run plays out of the shotgun formation? A decent amount, but certainly not all the time. How many times have you seen Texas Tech run a play from under center? None. Not even having a five or seven-step drop in your arsenal is not going to cut it in the NFL.

It’s the same reason that Tim Tebow will likely not make it as a QB in the NFL. He’ll make it as an athlete, but not as a passer. You can’t be a full-time quarterback in the NFL without being able to take snaps from under center.

I’m not saying these guys can’t learn to do all of these things, but I am saying that by the time they become proficient at all of them (or enough of them) to play in the NFL, they’ll likely have worn out their welcome and be sent packing.

There is a reason that the most successful quarterbacks in the NFL all come from the same styles of offense and coaching styles. While they were never the college quarterbacks that the Big 12 guys were, I’ll guarantee you that Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez have longer and more successful NFL careers than any of the Big 12 guys. It’s just the facts of the NFL.

Look at the Numbers

In the NFL, there are 109 quarterbacks that are on a roster. Of those 109, four of them are from the Big 12. Two of them (Vince Young, Chris Simms) are from Texas. The other two (Sage Rosenfels, Seneca Wallace) are from Iowa State. No other Big 12 school has a player currently employed in the NFL as a quarterback. Brad Smith played quarterback at Missouri, but he is now a receiver.

Four players out of 109, with zero starters is not a good number. Zero percent of the starting QBs in the NFL are from the Big 12. Just 3.7 percent of the quarterbacks employed in the NFL are from the Big 12.

Perhaps this is the draft class that changes everything, but until I see it, I will assume that these great college quarterbacks have peaked. Playing in one-trick offenses just doesn’t equate to NFL success. You must know the game to make it as an NFL quarterback, in addition to being physically gifted. I don’t think this crew has what it takes to prove me wrong, but we’ll just wait and see.

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