Moneyball 2: Electric Boogaloo, Starring Shane Battier

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For everyone that read Michael LewisMoneyball, you know that the book revolutionized the way that people view baseball and baseball stats.

Now, perhaps with just one article, Lewis is ready to revolutionize basketball in the same way.

Kevin Youkilis “starred” in Moneyball, and in the sequel, Shane Battier plays the lead. Of course, over the years, Youkilis has gone on to show that the Oakland A’s were correct to value him so much, and he’s shown it in ways that can be quantified.

Battier has been in the NBA since 2001 and has yet to have a season that basketball statisticians would call great. He’s the definition of average, statistically. For his career he’s averaging just over 10 points, less than two assists and less than five rebounds. I don’t think you could get more statistically average if you tried.

So where is the value? Well, the Houston Rockets won’t say. All they say is that they have the formula to determine unseen value in players, and that Battier is one of the most valuable players in the game.

Sure, people love to bash Battier, and they have done so since he was at Duke being “overrated.” Yet he continues to be a common ingredient on winning teams.

At Duke, Battier went to two Final Fours and won a national championship.

He was drafted to the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the worst franchises in sports at the time. Their winning percentage hadn’t topped .280 in the previous six seasons. In Battier’s third year with the Grizzlies, they were in the playoffs.

Sure, they may not have been in the playoff because of Battier, but who am I to argue that he wasn’t a reason they were.

shanebattierBattier joined the Houston Rockets in 2006, with the Rockets coming off of a 34 win season. In Battier’s first year, they won 52 games and went to the playoffs. Battier has been to the playoffs in five straight years now.

Is he the reason? Many say no, Lewis says yes.

Here we have a basketball mystery: a player is widely regarded inside the N.B.A. as, at best, a replaceable cog in a machine driven by superstars. And yet every team he has ever played on has acquired some magical ability to win.

What happened is that the ownership of the Rockets put together some people and said, “go find us new stats.” And what they did was start compiling and analyzing data. They won’t share it, since it is, for now, uniquely theirs, but it exists. And in this world, Shane Battier is a superstar.

Basically, what Battier does is play smart. He takes good shots, doesn’t turn the ball over, and he puts his teammates in a position to be better basketball players. Amazingly, in ways that aren’t counted by traditional stats, he makes his team better and the other team worse. But his box score numbers don’t show a thing.

Battier’s game is a weird combination of obvious weaknesses and nearly invisible strengths. When he is on the court, his teammates get better, often a lot better, and his opponents get worse — often a lot worse. He may not grab huge numbers of rebounds, but he has an uncanny ability to improve his teammates’ rebounding. He doesn’t shoot much, but when he does, he takes only the most efficient shots. He also has a knack for getting the ball to teammates who are in a position to do the same, and he commits few turnovers. On defense, although he routinely guards the N.B.A.’s most prolific scorers, he significantly ­reduces their shooting percentages. At the same time he somehow improves the defensive efficiency of his teammates — probably, Morey surmises, by helping them out in all sorts of subtle ways. “I call him Lego,” Morey says. “When he’s on the court, all the pieces start to fit together. And everything that leads to winning that you can get to through intellect instead of innate ability, Shane excels in. I’ll bet he’s in the hundredth percentile of every category.”

One of the interesting statistical conclusions that the Rockets have come to is that “It turns out there is no statistic that a basketball player accumulates that cannot be amassed selfishly.” How about that? If you want to be selfish, you can make yourself look good statistically. This has led the Rockets to rethink their contracts and statistical incentives, but more importantly, led them to no longer devalue players that lack eye-popping stats.

In the meantime, Battier has developed a reputation as a solid defensive player, one that is almost always matched up with the opposition’s superstar. This and plus/minus are the closest you get to being able to define Battier with stats.

I am admittedly not a basketball fan. I played the game in high school and still enjoy playing it, but I’m not a fan of the NBA. To a lesser extent, I am a fan of college hoops, mostly because of the difference in the level of passion. If anything were to bring the passion of college (for the whole game) to the NBA, I might be interested.

Additionally, I love baseball. One of the things I like about it is the ability of everyone who wants to to analyze seemingly inane details and draw original conclusions. With basketball, that aspect has never appeared to be there. It was a simple points-rebounds-assist, with maybe a bit of blocks and steals thrown in.

Adding the ability to truly dive into the stats could go a long way to bringing people like me aboard. Any ability to change the game (for the better) from the game it currently is (clear out, one-on-one) to a team oriented game (Battier’s are valued and create better teams) would be an improvement on the league.

I loved Moneyball and despite my lack of enjoyment in the NBA, I loved this article. If the Rockets let their secret out, and a guy like Lewis documents it, you may see the NBA change in the next ten years like baseball changed in the last ten years.

I think that’s a good thing.

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