As part of the lukekohler.com Major League Baseball predictions and previews series, here is part one of the 2009 MLB preview.

The NL East has come down to the last week of the season in consecutive years, with both years following the same formula. The Mets put themselves in a position to win the division, only to find a way to blow it down the stretch.

In both of those years, the Phillies inherited the division lead by doing nothing but playing consistent, solid ball. Neither team changed drastically in the offseason, so who comes out on top in 2009?

Philadelphia Phillies

The defending World Series champions should once again have their hands full in their own division — a division they’ve won two straight seasons. The question once again remains, can the Phillies win this division if the Mets don’t fall apart in August and September?

The Phillies have one of the strongest infields in all of baseball, but once you get past Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the questions arise. Gone is long time Mets killer Pat Burrell from the everyday lineup, the only major change to the Phillies offense. Replacing him in left field will be Raul Ibanez. Ibanez will not hit as many home runs as Burrell, but he will add about 40 points in average.

They also bring back four parts of their starting rotation, losing only Adam Eaton. Joe Blanton will take a full-time spot in the rotation, joining ace Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and the ageless Jamie Moyer as the four solid starters. The battle for the fifth spot will be between Kyle Kendrick and J.A. Happ, who saw limited action last year.

If there is one strength on this team other than their infield, it’s their bullpen. Brad Lidge returns from a career season and is once again supported by the likes of Ryan Madson, and Chad Durbin. After serving a 50 game suspension to start the season, they’ll get J.C. Romero back, and now they have a great X-factor in Chan Ho Park on the roster as well. Park can eat up innings in the bullpen and is a more than capable starter in an emergency. Assuming Lidge can pitch like he did last year, this is one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Overall, it doesn’t look like the Phillies changed much, so a combination of getting older and getting better should leave them where they’ve been the last two years — right around the 90 win mark and in contention in the last month of the season.

New York Mets

The New York Mets have a new home. No longer in the pitcher friendly Shea Stadium, the Amazins are now in the possibly even more pitcher friendly “Field that We Built,” brought to you by Citi. The new field’s fences are a bit shorter down the lines and two feet shorter to straight away center, but further in the alleys. In addition to the fences not moving in much, the walls are taller all the way around the field.

The new ballpark should benefit the pitchers, and the Mets are strong at the top of the rotation. Johan Santana will once again anchor the staff, followed by John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey. All three of those starters after Santana come with question marks. Pelfrey has only had one real season and must prove that he can do it again; Maine had one great season, then regressed in his second as a starter; and Perez has had all kinds of ups and downs in his career, and nothing should surprise you about him this year — good or bad. At the end of the rotation, Livan Hernandez could very well throw every five days — a sure sign that your fifth starter position is up for grabs.

In the lineup, not much has changed. The meat of the offense remains: Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. The questions remain at catcher, second base and the corner outfield spots. Two Mets starters, catcher Brian Schneider and second baseman Luis Castillo, bring .250 averages and no power — big weaknesses in this lineup. At the corner outfield spots, Ryan Church is coming off of the best year of his career, but still only hit .276/.346/.439 with 12 home runs in 90 injury-plagued games. In left field, 23-year old Daniel Murphy has a lot riding on him, and he has to be better than Lastings Milledge was, the last “can’t miss” prospect in the Mets outfield. Murphy can’t be much worse than Endy Chavez has been offensively, so until I see otherwise, I’ll call Murphy an upgrade in left. The offense was solid last year, and should be again, even with 2-4 glaring weaknesses.

If the Mets had one weakness in the past two seasons, it was their bullpen. Gone are Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis, and for at least one year, Billy Wagner. In are Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Losing Schoenweis hurts, but losing Heilman makes it all better. They acquired one of the best closers in the game, and if healthy, Putz stands to be the best setup man in the game. The bullpen may give them the handful of wins that could have put them in the playoffs in the past two seasons.

With no major changes to the lineup and rotation, the bullpen improvements may be what the Mets needed to finally take down the Phillies.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins are as solid up the middle as anyone with Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez. After that, they just don’t have it this year. With the Marlins, that’s all you need to know. They either win the World Series or they are out of contention for the playoffs. I think that this year will be the latter of those two options.

The Marlins, as always, still have some young talent. Their starting rotation averages just 24-years old, so you never know what you are getting there. The Marlins have acquired so much young talent over the years that you can’t be surprised if these guys all put together career years together — just as past Marlin teams have done. I don’t think this is the year that the Marlins get good again, but they have a fine group of young ballplayers that it may be coming soon.

I think Florida is a few pieces short of completing the puzzle and making a run at the World Series. Having said that, they went from last place to just 7.5 games out of first last year. A five game improvement is not out of the question, and doing that puts them at 89 wins and right in the hunt for this division. A playoff run wouldn’t shock me, but it would mildly surprise me.

Atlanta Braves

These ain’t your slightly older uncle’s Braves, folks. Gone are the consistent division titles and boring World Series losses to the Yankees. In are 72-win seasons where you finish 20 games out of first place. Sorry, Chipper — you are not going to end your career in the playoffs unless you leave Atlanta.

In their defense, the Braves had a solid offseason. They acquired Garret Anderson and Derek Lowe, and will now have Casey Kotchman for a full season. Brian McCann and Kelly Johnson are only getting better, and Chipper Jones is showing no signs of being 36-years old.

I think this team got quite a bit better in the offseason. They will improve on their awful 2008 season, but they are still probably not a playoff team. Look for the Braves to be around 80 wins along with the Marlins, watching the Mets and Phillies battle for the division again.

Washington Nationals

What can you say about a team that won just 59 games a year ago? They got Adam Dunn – that’s a good thing. After that, I got nothing.

Actually, the Nats have some good young ballplayers. Elijah Dukes showed that he could end up being great, Lastings Milledge could still someday reach his potential, and Ryan Zimmerman shows great promise if he can stay healthy. Pitchers John Lannan and Scott Olsen have showed flashes of brilliance in their young careers.

Believe it or not, this team has a solid young group put together. If they can stay healthy (big problem in the past), they can certainly add 10-15 wins from a year ago. This is in no way a playoff team, but they are also not a 59-win team again.

Predictions

The NL East will once again come down to two teams, the Phillies and the Mets. The Braves and Marlins will make the big dogs nervous for the first half of the season, but by the end, it will be down to two teams again.

If it weren’t for there bullpen the last two years, there is a good shot that the Mets are looking at going for their fourth straight division title. The Phillies appear to have stayed the same, while the Mets have plugged the hole that’s been drowning them. I think that is enough to take the title back in 2009.

2009 NL East
New York Mets, 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies, 88-74
Atlanta Braves, 81-81
Florida Marlins, 81-81
Washington Nationals, 70-92

Share this story...

Discussion

No comments for “2009 NL East Preview”

Post a comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.