2009 NL Central Preview

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Filed on March 31st, 2009 in Baseball ⋅ ⋅

By many accounts, the NL Central appears to be headed for being the least competitive division in all of baseball in 2009. On paper, this division belongs to the Cubs. But that’s why they play the games.

The Cardinals and Brewers figure to have something to say in the matter. Sure, the Brewers lost their pitching staff, but they have two of the most exciting young hitters in the game. The Cardinals have the best hitter in the game, and would love to bounce back from the last two seasons of being home in October.

The Astros closed the 2008 season extremely well and will look to build off of that, while the Pirates and the Reds will battle just to reach .500 baseball.

Chicago Cubs

zambrano The Cubs return virtually the same division winning team that they had in 2008 — with the addition of Milton Bradley. With a healthy Alfonso Soriano in the lineup and the addition of Bradley, their offense looks to improve on its NL best (2nd in MLB/Texas) 855 runs scored. This team can hit, and they should hit even better with their 2009 lineup.

Pitching? No problem. Everyone is back here, too, with the exception of closer Kerry Wood. The closer battle was between Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg, a battle that Gregg won. Having Gregg closing and Marmol once again as a setup man is a solid combination. The starting rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall is top-notch.

Make no mistake about it — this team is good. Outside of catastrophic injuries or an amazing season by someone else in this division, the Cubbies are headed to a third straight division title, and probably without too much competition.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers rented CC Sabathia for a shot at the playoffs last year, and it worked. The Brewers got into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but lost in the first round. Now they have to try to get back to the postseason without Sabathia, and without his partner-in-crime, Ben Sheets.

AP Photo/Darren Hauck Sabathia is off to the Bronx, while Sheets is going to miss most of 2009 with a torn flexor in his pitching elbow. That means the Brewers will be trying to get back to the 90-win mark with Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush anchoring the rotation. Sabathia and Sheets left some giant shoes to fill, and at first glance, the Brewers just don’t have the feet to fill them. They still have a solid group of pitchers, but you don’t just lose the top of your rotation like that and not suffer the consequences.

On the bright side, the Brewers have two of the best young hitters in baseball in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Braun is an MVP candidate and Fielder is a 50-homer candidate. Throw in J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart and you have a solid offense once again.

Milwuakee is a solid overall team with good depth, a necessity for surviving the loss of your top two pitchers. They lack any major deficiencies, and because of this, they should not drop off terribly from last season. But without Sabathia, they will have a very difficult time catching up to the Cubs. A second place finish is possible again, but that is no guarantee of making it back to the postseason.

St. Louis Cardinals

It’s tough to gauge just what the Cardinals are going to be in 2009. We know that Albert Pujols will probably be the best hitter in baseball. After that, it’s question marks.

albertpujols Are Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick as good as they appeared to be in 2008?

Can Khalil Greene thrive outside of Petco Park?

Are Colby Rasmus and David Freese the future of the Cardinals?

Can Chris Carpenter rebound from his injuries and be the stud that he was in 2005 and 2006?

If all of these answers are yes, the Cardinals could be on the verge of something special. If they are all no, then they could be on their way to the basement. More than likely, it’s about half and half. I think Ankiel and Ludwick are both solid players, and Rasmus is the real deal. I’m not sold on Freese, and I think Greene is just in over his head against MLB pitching. And Carpenter? Who knows. I hope he’s healthy, but with a guy like him, you just don’t know until he does it.

I like the direction this team is going and with Pujols in the lineup, they are always to be feared. They won 86 games in 2008, a slight improvement on their disappointing 2007. They could have a solid lineup if they get expected production out of Ankiel, Ludwick and Pujols. Throw in Skip Schumaker (no power, could move to 2B) and Yadier Molina (easily one of the top three Molinas in the game) and you have a solid group of hitters. If their pitching isn’t terrible, the Cardinals could once again be in the 86-90 win range, which should put them right in the Wild Card race.

Houston Astros

Houston was 36-18 in the last two months of the season in 2008, narrowly missing out on a shot at the NL Wild Card spot. It may have been their final shot at reaching the playoffs with this generation of players.

royoswalt Let me put it this way: If it is 2009 and Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are in your starting rotation, you are not in a good spot. Hampton has made just four starts since 2005, and Ortiz didn’t see the field at all last year. This is bad news for the Astros. Luckily for them, the rotation is still anchored by Roy Oswalt, as good of an ace as you’ll find.

Houston still has glimmers of hope. Lance Berkman is a solid ballplayer, and will anchor the lineup. Hunter Pence had a great rookie year, but needs to improve drastically from his sophomore slump of 2008. Miguel Tejada is an unknown. Since being named in the Mitchell Report, we saw his power disappear, his age jump several years at a time, and a once iron ballplayer suffer a broken wrist. Tejada seems to be on the downside of his career and shouldn’t be counted on to rebound out of nowhere. Kaz Matsui has turned into a solid 2B when he is not out with disgusting injuries, and Pudge Rodriguez showed in the WBC that he can still ball.

I expect the Astros to show signs of being great, but also signs of falling apart. They’ll throw in the occasional seven-game winning streak, only to lose 10 of the next 12. When you add it all up in the end, the losses will outnumber the wins, and the Astros will be looking to rebuild in the coming years. If they are anywhere near contention at the All-Star break, look for them to go rent-a-player crazy and stock up on guys in contract years. This may be their final push, so they better make a run if they can. But I don’t see this ending well for the Astros.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds showed some hope last season with a couple of young potential stars. Outfielder Jay Bruce stole the headlines with his monster first week in the show, while Edinson Volquez starred on the mound all year long. Building around guys like these could put the Reds on the track for future success.

AP Photo/Al Behrman As for now, the Reds are still a ways away from seeing the playoffs. They have some good ballplayers, like Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Harang (minus 2008). Even still, they would need all of their stars to have career years, and all of their unknowns to be at the top end of their projections, while not being killed by their average role players and position players to see any success.

There is no depth on this team, and really not a lot of upside. Their rotation is not very strong and they have glaring weaknesses in the field.

No matter how you cut it, the Reds are a few years away from whiffing the postseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

So how bad are the Pirates when the Reds are ahead of them? Bad.

Here’s a general rule of thumb: When you have two LaRoches starting in your infield, you are not going to the playoffs. Adam LaRoche is a decent enough ballplayer, and his brother, Andy, might well turn into one. But right now, in 2009, they are not two brothers you want making up half of your major league infield.

Without Jason Bay, Pirates fans don’t really have much to get excited about this year. There is some talent here, as we saw from Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit last year. There is Paul Maholm, the 26-year old pitcher who really started to come into his own last year, as well.

The Pirates look to have a solid foundation in place to make a run at the division in a few years, but right now, they just lack the firepower to compete with the big boys in this division. Like the Astros, they’ll have flashes of being very good, but it will be overshadowed by their much longer flashes of being young and unpolished.

The Pirates haven’t cracked the 70 win mark since 2004 when they won 72, and I don’t think this is the year they get there again either.