There’s a very good chance that the best team in baseball is in the American League East. It’s just a question of which team? The Tampa Bay Rays won the American League in 2008, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series the year before that, and the New York Yankees, well, they’re the New York Yankees, and they have a couple hundred million dollars riding on the notion that they are going to be better than both of them.

The Rays and Sox bring back the core of their teams, while the Yankees spent like madmen this offseason to assemble one of the best starting rotations on paper that the league has ever seen. But will it be enough in this tough division?

Boston Red Sox

With their 95 wins in 2008, the Red Sox would have won three divisions. Unfortunately, they had to settle for a wild card berth and were subsequently knocked out of the playoffs by the division champion Devil Rays. So what did they do to improve on last year? Well, they basically brought back the same team that they finished with, but upgraded their bullpen with a few key offseason moves.

Takashi Saito may be 39-years old, but he sure doesn’t show it. He’s been in the majors for just three years — the first two dominant — but his time was up in Los Angeles. That opened up the door for the Red Sox to pick him up, giving them one of the best one-two punches in the game with closer Jonathan Papelbon. If Saito can stay healthy, he can be the best setup man in the game. The Red Sox also acquired John Smoltz in the offseason. When Smoltz returns from his healing labrum surgery in a month or two, he should be very effective in the small role that the Sox will ask him to play. Figuring they still have Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson and Papelbon, the Sox may have the best bullpen in the majors when the year is over.

In the starting rotation, the Red Sox are solid. Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny make up a tremendous starting five, and there is no reason to think that they won’t get solid contributions from this part of the roster all year.

The Boston lineup is once again great. Even without the departed Manny Ramirez, the Sox are loaded. With a healthy David Ortiz, MVP Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell, its hard to find a weakness. The Sox are expecting improvement from a now healthy Jed Lowrie at shortstop, leaving only catcher Jason Varitek as a “weakness.” But you never know with ‘Tek, as he’s bounced back decently from awful seasons before. And even if he can’t hit, his relationship with the Boston pitchers is enough to put up with his offensive deficiencies.

New York Yankees

Who would have thought that we’d be talking about the New York Yankees and saying that the biggest question is their ability to score runs. Gone are the days of scoring 900 runs, as the offensive production from this team slipped significantly in 2008. The 789 runs the Bombers scored last year was their lowest total as a team since 1995, and things don’t look much better for 2009 in that department. Luckily for them, they seem to have the pitching to win a whole lot of games anyway.

With Alex Rodriguez sidelined for a while, the only offensive threat in the Yankees lineup is Mark Tiexiera. When you have Cody Ransom and Brett Gardner in your everyday lineup, you know this isn’t a typical Yankee team. You don’t know what you’re getting with Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada returning from injuries, Derek Jeter will get on base but lacks power, and Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon could skew 50-point in batting average from year to year and surprise no one. They will not be a devastating offense, but they should be good enough to compete for this division based on pitching. And when Rodriguez returns, he and Tiexiera will make a very scary middle of the lineup.

How’s this for a starting rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain. To me, that’s pretty damn good. Right now, nobody in baseball is pitching on Sabathia’s level, and Burnett, Pettitte and Wang are all above average when healthy. I won’t be surprised to see Pettitte struggle this year, but I expect good years from Burnett and Wang. Chamberlain, if he is in fact starting, has shown to be nothing short of spectacular. If he can keep up for a full season what he has shown in short bursts, he could end up being the number two starter on this team in a year.

In the bullpen, two words: Mariano Rivera. You don’t need to know much more than that. After an average 2007, Rivera bounced back to be dominant again in 2008, and at this point, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Their middle relief is nothing to write home about, but with a rotation that should get you seven solid inning every night, they may not be as important to the Yankees as they are to other teams.

Tampa Bay Rays

What will the Cinderella story of 2008 do for an encore? Well, since the general feeling around baseball was that the Rays were planning big things for ‘08 and ‘07 was a bit of an accident, expect them to be in the hunt once again.

The Rays bring back basically the same team that won the American League, with all of their young stars now experienced veterans. Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are the heart of this team, and there is no reason to think that they won’t be just as good this year. Manager Joel Madden has put together a great team with great chemistry and this team is not just going to disappear after one year. Make no mistake about it, the Rays of 2008 were not a fluke, and to think otherwise will be bad news for the rest of the AL. Add in Akinori Iwamura, Jason Bartlett and Dioner Navarro and you have a solid lineup once again.

As for pitching, the Rays were full of surprises last year. We all knew how good Scott Kazmir was, but we were all given a treat seeing how good the rest of the staff was. James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Niemann and Kazmir are all 27 or younger and should only get better. Barring injury, this team will be as good as last years.

If there is a weakness on this team, it’s their closer. Troy Percival is 39 and not what he used to be, but they have Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour waiting in the wings. Balfour was nothing short of amazing in relief last year and I won’t be surprised to see him take the closer job if he starts 2009 like he was in 2008.

Toronto Blue Jays

This is where it gets tough in this division. When you have to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays over 50 times, there is only so much you can expect from the bottom of this division. But the Blue Jays have some talented players and only finished three games behind the Yankees last year. An improvement would not be out of the question, which would put them in the 85-90 win range, a number that could win the NL West in any given year.

Losing Burnett is a big loss for Toronto, who are now left with Roy Halladay to shoulder the load of the pitching staff by himself. The rest of the Blue Jay rotation has a combined 24 wins in their careers. That’s not exactly the experience that I want to tackle the lineups they’ll be facing. But the organization has faith in their guys and expect them to play well. But we’ll see.

The Toronto lineup is solid. With Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, their offensive production should be close to 2008’s. Outside of that, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about in their lineup.

But it likely won’t be enough to overcome the dropoff in pitcing. Last year the Jays led baseball by only giving up 610 runs, a feat they likely won’t accomplish this year without Burnett and Shawn Marcum (Tommy John surgery). Luckily, they have a great bullpen, which should be enough for this team to once again be respectable but not playoff bound.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles were the doormat of the AL East last year, and this year they may have a chance to climb out of the basement. It’s no guarantee, but with the Blue Jays on the way down, it could be Baltimore’s chance to not finish in last place for a second straight year.

Baltimore had a decent enough offense last year, scoring 782 runs (eight more than Tampa Bay), but they surrendered 869 runs, third worst in all of baseball. With hitters like Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and 23-year old Adam Jones, the O’s will score runs again in 2009. But will they be able to win games without scoring 8-10 runs?

Last year, the Orioles had exactly one good starting pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie. The rest of the staff was awful. This year, they are changing things up. Other than Guthrie, the rest of the rotation is made up of guys that were not on last year’s team. They can’t be worse, so the Orioles should improve in 2009.

Prediction

This is a three-horse race, and it should be a fun one to watch. I think the Rays are for real, but I think they are slightly outgunned this season. The Yankees will be better than they were a year ago, but with no healthy A-Rod to start the year, they may suffer their April blues once again. That leaves Boston, who I think has the best combination of offense, pitching and experience. The upgrades to their bullpen might be the difference. I think this division will come down to the last series of the season, and likely produce two playoff teams once again.

Boston Red Sox, 98-64
New York Yankees, 96-66
Tampa Bay Rays, 95-67
Baltimore Orioles, 77-85
Toronto Blue Jays, 73-89

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