In most of my previews, I try to examine the X’s and O’s of the match — the styles matchup, the fighter resumes and what each needs to do to win. In this preview, I will make no apologies for my bluntness.

Oscar De La Hoya will punish Manny Pacquiao.

It’s as simple as that. If anyone tries to break this fight down more deeply than that, they are wasting their breath.

But for the sake of argument, I’ll back up my prediction with some simple facts.

Fact One: Oscar De La Hoya is a better boxer than Manny Pacquiao.

Oscar may not be Sugar Ray Leonard, but he’s a guy who has outpointed Pernell Whitaker, Felix Trinidad and in many eyes, outboxed Shane Mosley. Pacquiao has no hint of boxing skill, just a mauling attack. He got toyed with by Juan Manuel Marquez in the first fight, embarrassed by Erik Morales in their first fight (it was close on the cards, but only because Morales decided to fight left-handed in the last round).

In a straight-up boxing match, Oscar wins.

Fact Two: Oscar has more power than Manny.

Not relative to their weight class, but in reality. Pacquiao has only once entered the ring over 130 pounds. He has gone the distance in two of his last three fights. Pacquiao can hurt small fighters, but Oscar is not going to stick his chin out like David Diaz, and even if he does, Pacquiao won’t be able to hurt him. Oscar has fought as high as 160, and his dominant knockout win over Ricardo Mayorga at 154 just two fights ago is all the proof you need to know that Oscar has more power. Ask yourself this: Could Manny Pacquiao knock out Ricardo Mayorga, or even drop him with one punch as Oscar did? The answer is no.

In a pure punch for punch brawl, Oscar wins.

Fact Three: Oscar has better defense than Manny.

That is, to say, Oscar has defense. Pacquiao’s idea of defense is to hit back harder than he just got hit. That won’t work against the big boys. Pacquiao has been in the ring with only three real fighters in his career, Marquez, Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Marquez hurt him, Morales hurt him and Barrera didn’t. Marquez and Morales were able to hit him at will. If Manny fights this fight defensively like he has in previous fights, he won’t see the third round. Oscar has been in with the best and the only time he’s ever been hurt was with a perfect body shot from Bernard Hopkins. And for the record, Pacquiao has been knocked out twice, both by men weighing less than 113 pounds.

When it comes to defending themselves, Oscar wins.

Fact Four: Oscar is too big for Manny.

It may be the calling cry of everyone who is against this fight, but the truth is the truth. Oscar has fought at 160, Pacquiao has been as high as 135. Sure, Pacquiao may eventually be a formidable welterweight, but right now, he is not. You wouldn’t pick Juan Manuel Marquez to win a fight at welterweight, would you? After watching what happened to Ricky Hatton in his fights at welterweight, as well as many others, you have to understand that the human body has limits. When you’re just 5′6″ tall, you can just add 15 pounds like it’s nothing.

Pacquiao will be the smaller man in the ring and he will struggle badly with the natural size difference.

Summary of Facts: Oscar De La Hoya, at this point in his career, has the advantage over Manny Pacquiao in every single category of boxing skill. You have to give Manny the edge in age, because that’s just simple mathematics, but I give him no edge anywhere else. Pacquiao will lose speed by going up in weight, and in the ring, I suspect Oscar to actually be faster than Manny, in addition to everything else that I’ve mentioned. I don’t think this fight is good for boxing, and I don’t think it will be a competitive fight. The first left hand that Oscar lands will trigger the Manilla Shuffle, followed by Pacquiao on his back.

Prediction: De La Hoya KO 3.

It’s been 50 weeks since I heard that song over and over and over again, and this week, I get to hear it again.

Nearly a year ago, Ricky Hatton and I think the entire population of Manchester, England invaded Las Vegas and took over the MGM Grand. It was one hell of a week, as the days leading up to his showdown with Floyd Mayweather was the most electric atmosphere I’ve witnessed in my time in Las Vegas.

Now, nearly a year later, Hatton is set to face Paulie Malignaggi in that same ring, this time for the true crown at junior-welterweight. Hatton is still the true champion at 140, but Malignaggi is the top contender. This is a matchup that the closer you look at it, the more intriguing it gets.

Hatton and Malignaggi each have one loss, Hatton to Mayweather and Malignaggi to Miguel Cotto. Their styles couldn’t be more different, which makes for a fascinating matchup of the two.

Hatton is a walk forward, in-fighting, body-punching, tough fighter. Malignaggi is a slick, jab-and-move, no power, tough fighter. Both can take a punch. Both are quick.

Each fighter has a major question that needs to be answered in this fight.

For Hatton, it’s finding out what he learned from Floyd Mayweather, Sr., his new trainer. Hatton’s progress has been pretty much non-existent since he beat Kostya Tszyu, meaning that a change in trainers is just what he needs. Or, you could argue that Hatton’s style is so unique that it defines his success, and trying to change it after 45 fights is mad. Mayweather and Hatton have promised a more defensive Hatton — hopefully meaning more aggressive from a distance, not more clinching.

For Malignaggi, the question is which one will show up. Will it be the Paulie that took the best that Cotto had to offer, then dominated Lovemore N’Dou? Or will it be the Paulie that narrowly beat Herman Ngoudjo in a fight that he took too many punches, then survived a rematch with N’Dou, again being hit too often and stupidly sporting hair extensions?

Malignaggi certainly has the skills to fight with Hatton, but he must fight like a boxer, not the slugger he’s attempted to be in the last two fights. This is a guy that will make Malignaggi pay if he stays inside too long.

Paulie’s best chance at winning this fight is to keep his distance and use his footwork to avoid Hatton’s bum-rush. Hatton will charge in on you, but only one guy has ever been able to time him. And even if Malignaggi lands the best left hand of his career, he’s not dropping Ricky like Floyd did.

Hatton’s best chance is to be Ricky Hatton. There is almost no chance that Malignaggi can hurt him, so he can take few chances coming in. Hatton needs to slow Malignaggi down and make this a fight at close quarters, since Hatton has seemed to tire down the stretch in his last few fights. He needs to hold and attack the body in the first five rounds, taking some of the wind out of Paulie in the late rounds.

I think that Hatton will be significantly faster than Malignaggi, something I don’t think we’ve ever seen. He needs to use this advantage to counter Malignaggi and get off first as well, because realistically, he’s not knocking him out. Hatton needs to impress the judges with punches, not clinches. This one is more than likely going to the cards, and Hatton needs a clear, clean decision in this fight.

As with any Malignaggi fight, a knockout is unlikely. The guy had his jaw broken by Miguel Cotto and finished the fight strong. He’s not getting knocked out unless Hatton lands the same body shot he landed on Jose Luis Castillo.

And we know that Malignaggi isn’t knocking anyone out anytime soon. He has just five knockouts in his career, the last one coming in 2003. This one is going to the cards, folks.

I think Malignaggi is certainly a live dog in this fight, and at 2-to-1, he’s worth a look. At -300, the OVER looks even better. But in the end, I think Ricky outclasses Malignaggi.

Without a ton of confidence, I’ll pick Hatton to win a comfortable unanimous decision, perhaps dropping Malignaggi if it turns into the physical fight that Paulie’s last two have been. But I don’t think anyone’s getting KO’d in this one. I won’t be shocked if Ricky looks shot and Paulie dances around him either.

Prediction: Hatton unanimous decision.

Jermain Taylor is fresh off of back-to-back wins over the legendary Bernard Hopkins, and is sitting pretty as the undisputed middleweight champion of the world.

Jeff Lacy is in training. He has a bout coming up in just three months with Joe Calzaghe to unify the super-middleweight belts. Lacy is a small favorite and predicted by most to be the man that beats the long-time champion.

Lacy was one fight away from being Taylor. Young, undefeated superstar, taking on the long-reigning champion in a matchup of old man versus the future. A Lacy win, as expected, would set up one of the biggest fights you could make in boxing — former teammates on the 2000 US Olympic team, both undefeated champions, putting their friendship aside in a boxing blockbuster…

Fast forward almost four years to November 15, 2008.

Taylor and Lacy will finally step into the ring together. Taylor is 27-2, coming off of back-to-back losses, never having really capitalized on his wins over Hopkins. Lacy is 24-1, with his only loss being to Calzaghe, but a terrible shoulder injury and the beating he took from Calzaghe have nearly ended his career.

Lacy is lucky to be 24-1. He could very easily be 21-4, as it took all he had to survive and eek out wins in his last three fights. Since the brutal beating he took at the hands of Calzaghe, Lacy has two wins via majority decision over B-level fighters, and a very narrow unanimous decision against the Contender’s Peter Manfredo. In his most recent fight against Epifanio Mendoza, Lacy was hurt on several occassions and truly “survived” the fight to get the nod on the scorecards.

Taylor put together an impressive resume in his time as middleweight champ, even if all of the wins weren’t as impressive as the names. Hopkins, Ouma, Spinks, and a draw with Winky Wright left many people saying that Taylor was an underachiever, and that with his talent, he should be more convincing in his wins.

His shot at redemption came against the undefeated rising star Kelly Pavlik. This was Taylor’s shot at the title, despite him already having the title. It appeared that Taylor was going to skyrocket back to the top, when he had Pavlik down and on queer street in the second round. Almost any referee in boxing would have stopped the fight with Taylor a KO winner, but Steve Smoger said to fight on, as he always does.

With a comfortable lead on the scorecards, Taylor got caught by Pavlik’s vicious right hand, stumbling back into the corner where he was knocked out.

A rematch with Pavlik was not nearly as entertaining, but it showed that Taylor can take a punch, and that he can make adjustments when needed. He lost the rematch on points, but it may have been Taylor’s most impressive fight since before he was the champ.

Now these former teammates and roommates finally meet. It’s not the blockbuster it could have been. It’s more of a crossroads fight. If Taylor wins, he is right in the mix for the biggest fights in the game at super-middleweight or light-heavyweight, while Lacy will have to go back to the drawing board and pretty much start from square one.

If Lacy wins, he re-establishes himself as a legitimate contender at the super-middleweight level. More importantly, if Lacy wins, Taylor is back to square one.

The bottom line is that the winner of this fight is in line for a much bigger fight, especially if it is Taylor. The loser of this fight may need to accept that their next fight will be on ESPN or Versus.

As for the actual fight, I think it is certainly Taylor’s fight to lose. As long as he jabs and lets his hands go to the tune of 40-50 punches per round, I think Taylor maintains control of the fight. If he stays cautious like he was with Pavlik’s right hand, Taylor should stay out of trouble.

Lacy needs to pace himself and look to land more than one big punch. He seems to be mentally broken since the Calzaghe fight, unable to let his hands go, and unsure of himself when he does. If Lacy wants to win this fight, he needs to have something left in the tank after the 6th round.

I think that Taylor systematically breaks Lacy down with a steady diet of jabs and right hands. I would expect Lacy to by gassed and looking out of one eye by the 7th round, and for Taylor to have a chance to take him out by the 8th or 9th round. I don’t think that the current version of Jeff Lacy is going to have a whole lot of say in this fight.

Prediction: Taylor TKO 9.

For the last four years, Roy Jones has spent half of his time losing, and the other half trying to bounce back from losses. This fight may be his final chance at redemption and a return to the top. Calzaghe has been spending that time trying to get recognized for his accomplishments, as each one of his wins gets retroactively downgraded through no fault of his own.

When Calzaghe embarrassed Jeff Lacy, it was a career victory. Lacy was the favorite, and most did not think Calzaghe would be able to handle his power. Calzaghe beat the living daylights out of him, and pretty much ended Lacy’s career. At the time, it was a great win. Now that Lacy is about one fight away from retiring, people say the win wasn’t that great. They don’t take into account the fact that it was Calzaghe who broke Lacy, not that Lacy was actually bad when they fought. One Calzaghe brutal beating and a terrible shoulder injury later, people want to say that Calzaghe’s win over Lacy wasn’t a good win. Ridiculous.

Then, it was that he’d never fight Mikkel Kessler, and if he did, he’d lose. Well, he didn’t beat him like he did Lacy, but he sure beat him convincingly. So after that fight, the excuse was that Kessler was never that good anyway and Joe should have beaten him.

Then came Bernard Hopkins. Going up in weight, Calzaghe edged Hopkins in a close but very fair decision. Now that Hopkins whipped Kelly Pavlik, the prevailing argument is that Hopkins would certainly win a rematch, so Joe’s first win is meaningless.

No matter what Joe Calzaghe does, it’s not good enough. If he beats Jones this weekend, he’s just beating a past his prime, washed-up, has-been. Or so they’ll say.

But give credit where credit is due. Calzaghe is the undefeated champion of two weight classes, and has a handful of very notable and reputable wins. Jones may be on the downside of his career, but is still one of the five best light-heavyweights in the world. A win for Calzaghe here cements his legacy and will allow him to retire as the champion.

Jones, on the other hand, is trying to regain the crown he once wore. Since that fateful left-hand from Antonio Tarver in 2004, Jones has been trying to get off the canvas and reclaim his throne. But one knockout led to another just four months later, which led to a very cautious rubber match with Tarver, resulting in three straight defeats. The former king of boxing looked as good as dead.

His last loss was in 2005. Since then, Jones has won three straight fights. His most recent win over Tito Trinidad, was the best Jones has looked in the ring since beating heavyweight John Ruiz. It’s not that Trinidad is really that good anymore, it’s that Roy looked like Roy.

That’s the determining characteristic of this fight. If Roy is Roy, he can beat Calzaghe. If Roy is the guy who was timid in Tarver III, or unwilling to let his hands go, as he was against Glen Johnson, then Calzaghe may very well overwhelm him.

So how do you predict what Roy Jones will show up? The only way to figure that out is to look at the progression of Jones’ fighting style since the Ruiz fight.

After beating Ruiz at heavyweight, Jones moved back down to light-heavyweight and narrowly defeated Tarver. Jones was sluggish and clearly drained from the weight loss, but gutted out the win with a strong effort in the late rounds. He wasn’t fearful, he was just sluggish.

In Tarver II, Jones dominated the first round and looked like old school Roy. Then Tarver landed a perfect left hand that knocked Jones out. He got right back in the ring just four months later and Jones looked very fearful of getting hit. Johnson would not stop throwing punches, so Roy spent most of the fight on the ropes covering up. When Johnson finally knocked him out, he hurt him worse than Tarver did.

His next fight was again with Tarver, and Roy fought as if his only goal was to not get knocked out. Tarver played along and the two slow-danced their way to a boring decision. That was the point in which Jones started to believe that he can win fights again. He knew he could still survive 12 rounds.

So he took a soft fight with Prince Badi Ajamu, and Roy boxed his way to an easy win. His next fight he got a little more aggressive and outboxed and hurt Anthony Hanshaw. That led up to his most recent fight with Tito Trinidad, in which Roy let Tito overwork himself early, then opened up his right hand and started to beat the hell out of him. Jones dominated that fight, but most importantly, he fought like Roy Jones would have fought in 2003.

There was a progression in Jones comeback that should have him ready to peak in this fight. All of his “comeback” fights were building to a shot at redemption, and a fight with the pound-for-pound number one is that shot. There is no reason to believe Roy won’t attempt to fight this fight the way he would have in 2003.

So if Jones fights like his old self, how does this fight shape up?

We know how Calzaghe is going to fight. He’ll be the one coming forward and he’ll be the one throwing the majority of the punches. Calzaghe doesn’t have great power, so I’d expect Roy to spend a lot of time on the ropes in the early rounds, allowing Calzaghe to wail away on his body and arms.

As Roy takes advantage of referee breaks, he’ll move back to the middle of the ring. Nobody in the world is better at repositioning themselves after a clinch than Jones. When you hear “break”, get ready to see Jones magically appear in the middle of the ring, where he’ll unleash his lead right hand.

As we saw against Hopkins, Calzaghe can be caught with a right hand as he’s walking in. And as we saw against Trinidad, Jones throws that punch as well as anyone in the game.

The key to this fight is that punch and overall volume. If Jones can land that right hand a few times, it will cut Calzaghe’s volume down to where Jones can outwork him and take a decision. If Jones doesn’t let his hands go in the middle of the ring, Calzaghe will just throw too many punches, and Jones will be left in the same spot as Hopkins. You can fight Calzaghe well, but when he throws as many punches as he does, it’s tough to win rounds against him.

I can see either scenario happening here, but I think Calzaghe will have to land something on Jones to gain his respect to win the fight. If Jones doesn’t respect Calzaghe’s power, and isn’t hurt by him, he’ll win the fight. Jones has a solid edge in hand-speed, and if he can land a few punches to level out the volume, Jones will win this fight. But Calzaghe’s never been beaten, and that must be respected. There is a good chance that Calzaghe now is just a little better than Jones now.

I think this fight is going the distance, and for betting purposes, the only play is to take the +250 on Jones. This fight is a pick ‘em at best, and neither guy should be a two-and-a-half to one underdog. In the end, I think that Jones hand-speed and experience just edge out the undefeated champ in a very close, split-decision.

Prediction: Jones by split-decision.

I’m talking about the super-flyweight unification bout on Saturday between Christian Mijares (36-3-2, 15 KOs) and Vic Darchinyan (30-1-1, 24 KOs), airing on Showtime. Mijares is the WBC and WBA title holder and top ranked Ring Magazine fighter, while Darchinyan is the former 112-pound king, and now 115-pound IBF champ and ranked fourth by Ring. This is just the third unification bout at the 115-pound limit in the division’s history.

Mijares is a southpaw that can flat out box. He’ll make you miss, he’ll counter-punch, and he’ll hit you hard enough to bust you up. Don’t be fooled by his two recent wins by split-decision, as it is widely believed that the scorecards he didn’t win in those fights were among two of the worst scorecards ever submitted by a boxing judge (and that’s saying something). Mijares’ biggest win came 18 months ago when he embarrassed and dominated Jorge Arce to a bloody unanimous decision. Arce was the favorite in that fight and possibly headed for a showdown with Darchinyan before getting pummelled by Mijares.

Darchinyan, meanwhile, was dominating the flyweight division, knocking out pretty much everyone you put him in the ring with. The problem fighters had with Vic was that they all thought they could trade with him. Darchinyan seemed indestructible, a true power puncher in a division where that couldn’t exist.

Then came Nonito Donaire, brother of previous Darchinyan victim Glenn Donaire. Last July, as a 7-to-1 underdog, Donaire came in and started outboxing Darchinyan, picking him apart with counterpunches, while avoiding the devastating left hand. Then, halfway through the fifth round, Donaire landed a perfect punch that knocked Darchinyan out, and shattered his undefeated legend. It was a brutal knockout, one in which Darchinyan denied having been knocked out or hurt for several minutes after the fight, even through the post fight interview. Reality eventually set in, and Darchinyan moved on.

Darchinyan has now moved up in weight, and won two of three since moving up. His lone blemish at 115 was a very controversial draw against Z Gorres, a fight that to nearly all observers, Darchinyan won comfortably.

For each fighter, this may be their biggest test.

The closest thing to Mijares that Darchinyan has faced was Donaire, who outboxed him, then knocked Darchinyan out.

The closest thing to Darchinyan that Mijares has faced was Jorge Arce, who received a beating of epic proportions.

I do think that Darchinyan is slightly better than Arce, but I also think that Mijares is better than Donaire.

Darchinyan has said that he plans on boxing more in this fight, being disciplined, and not just looking to land one monster left hand. If he does this, I think it could be interesting, but I don’t have faith that Darchinyan can suddenly become a quality boxer, and abandon his slugger mentality.

I think that over the course of 12 rounds, Mijares dominates the fight when it’s a boxing match. But he must avoid the left hand of Darchinyan.

Don’t be surprised if this fight looks eerily similar to last weekend’s bout between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade, with one fighter dominating all aspects of the fight on the scorecard, but the bigger puncher continues to come forward, eventually hurting the boxer. The only difference is no one in the world has the chin Andrade did, and if Darchinyan takes a similar beating, he will fall down.

I think Mijares controls this fight start to finish, but Darchinyan will have some moments. He may even hurt Mijares, but I don’t think he’ll be able to finish him off. Expect Mijares to have a wide lead on points, possibly hurting and stopping Darchinyan late. More than likely, though, Mijares just cruises to a decision victory.

Prediction: Mijares unanimous decision.

Steve Forbes is a fine young fighter, but he’s not a welterweight, and he certainly shouldn’t be fighting above welterweight. This fight is taking place at a catchweight of 150, despite the fact that Oscar appeared to miss that mark by a half-pound at the weigh-in. Forbes has fought at 130 pounds as recently as four years ago, and the only times he’s ever fought above the junior-welterweight division was when participating in The Contender series at welterweight.

At just over 5′7″, Forbes is giving up three inches in height to the Golden Boy. De La Hoya, meanwhile, has fought at middleweight when Forbes was at super-featherweight. Having these two meet at 150 is asking a whole lot from Forbes.

Forbes is a solid fighter, and was terribly robbed two fights ago against Demetrius Hopkins. Not only did everyone who watched that fight score it for Forbes, they scored it widely for him. The scorecards however, said that Hopkins won by very wide margins. That fight was one of the worst boxing decisions of the last ten years, and with the win that he should have been credited for, Forbes would be considered a serious contender at junior-welterweight. Instead, he lucked into the De La Hoya sweepstakes and will get a massive payday for this fight.

Unfortunately for Forbes, he may need to knock Oscar out just to win a decision.

This fight has a lot of money riding on it, but Golden Boy Promotions needs a De La Hoya win. I’m not saying to expect a bad decision, but in all honesty, Forbes is going to have a hard time winning any close rounds. Forbes is fighting the uphill-est of all uphill battles in boxing.

Having said all that, Oscar is still a terrific boxer. Even if these two were naturally the same weight, I’d give Oscar the edge and pick him to win. De La Hoya has said that he anticipates a knockout, and that’s a legitimate possibility. The question will be if Oscar wants to try to put on an entertaining show and go for the knockout, or if he wants the twelve rounds of work.

Another interesting angle in this fight is that it marks the return of Floyd Mayweather, Sr. to De La Hoya’s corner as his trainer. If you’re looking for the storyline for Oscar-Floyd II, there it is. I think with Mayweather training him, Oscar is still a top-15 fighter in the world.

As I’ve said before, the promotion for this fight bothers me. For De La Hoya to say that he is “giving back” to his fans by fighting on regular HBO is insulting. By my math, it has cost boxing fans $2,731.20 each to watch all of Oscar’s fights since May of 1995. Obviously it’s not only to see Oscar, and it’s not a scientific calculation, but it’s also not unrealistic. To me, giving back would have been fighting on network television with a solid undercard. Fighting on HBO with high ticket prices to go to the fight is not “giving back” to me.

I think we’ll see the best Oscar in this fight, and I think he handles Forbes quite easily. The natural size difference will just be too much for Forbes to handle. I think after a slow start, Oscar finds his target and takes Forbes out in the middle rounds.

Prediction: De La Hoya TKO 8.

I have been waiting patiently for this fight all year. As much as I loved the brilliant fights we had in March, including Marquez-Vazquez III, and Marquez-Pacquiao II, Bernard Hopkins and Joe Calzaghe is the fight I’ve been waiting for. This is a classic boxing match, with styles that exemplify the “sweet science” of boxing.

And the beauty is that HBO has stepped up and put this fight on regular HBO, rather than HBO Pay-Per-View. While it might not be the most exciting fight they could air for free, it’s a pleasant surprise and a nice reward for true boxing fans

Hopkins is a throwback kind of fighter — crafty, slick, great defense, great chin, and dirty when he needs to be. He’ll never overwhelm you with power, but he hits hard enough to get your attention.

Calzaghe is a matchup nightmare for any boxer — tremendous workrate, left-handed, great defense, great chin, and amazing hand speed.

If you’ve ever handicapped a fight based only on styles, I think this is the kind of fight you do it for.

Calzaghe enters this fight unbeaten in 44 fights, with 32 knockouts. His most recent win over Mikkel Kessler was one of his most impressive victories, as the fight was practically a pick ‘em, and Calzaghe cruised to a comfortable decision. Kessler is a very skilled fighter, and for him to say that Calzaghe “spoiled his boxing” says a lot about how Calzaghe can dictate a fight and make an opponent fight on his terms.

As for Hopkins, he has been beaten just four times, once to Roy Jones, Jr., twice to Jermain Taylor, and once in his pro debut. I never saw Hopkins’ first loss, and I don’t count it as meaning anything, being his pro debut and having been 20 years ago. The Jones loss was against the best fighter of this generation, nearly in his prime. The two losses to Taylor were partly because of a poor style matchup. That’s what Bernard faces in this fight as well, I feel.

The main difference in styles in this fight is their work rates. Calzaghe throws 1000 punches a fight, and Hopkins is lucky to approach a third of that. In Hopkins’ last fight against Winky Wright, he threw over 600 punches, but in the three prior fights he only topped 400 once. He threw 417 against Antonio Tarver in a win, and just 371 and 326. Those are drastic differences, and if neither man can hurt the other, which may be the case, work rate my decide rounds.

If it were just that simple, I’d be done with the preview and say that Calzaghe coasts to a wide decision by outworking Hopkins. But no Hopkins fight is that easy to handicap.

Hopkins is no stranger to being an underdog, and he’s an underdog in this fight. Just like he was against Felix Trinidad in 2001, and Tarver in 2006. And for my money, those are his two most impressive performances. In fact, you could argue that those are his two only impressive performances. Most of his middleweight title run was against average competition. He lost badly to Jones, closely to Taylor twice, beat an out-of-his-element Wright at 175 pounds, and racked up a lot of wins against guys who really won’t be remembered in the next generation. But the way he performed in the two fights he was supposed to lose is not to be shrugged off.

When all is said and done, this is just a bad matchup for Hopkins. How do you beat a man that will throw more punches than you and be quicker than you when you can’t hurt him? That is the mountain that Hopkins has to climb. Calzaghe’s people are afraid that Hopkins will resort to fouling and fighting dirty if things aren’t going his way. I can see that as a possibility, but with Freddie Roach in his corner, I’m doubting it’s going to happen.

I think that Calzaghe dictates this whole fight. He’ll outwork Hopkins, and he’s a master defensively. This fight is almost guaranteed to go to the scorecards, and I just don’t see how Hopkins can win six or seven rounds. Calzaghe cruises in this one. Prediction: Calzaghe unanimous decision.

The Welterweights

Cotto vs. Gomez

A real-life contender against a television contender, if you will. Miguel Cotto is the obvious choice for second best welterweight in the world, and some would say you have a solid argument calling him the best. Gomez is a guy that was on The Contender back in the first season, losing to Peter Manfredo, Jr. and has since gone on to put together back-to-back wins against past their primes Arturo Gatti and Ben Tackie. Cotto comes in off of wins against Shane Mosley and Zab Judah.

While I think that Gomez has a future as a decent to good welterweight, Cotto has a future as possibly the best welterweight in the world. I’ve bet against Cotto more times than I care to admit, and obviously lost every one of those bets. When you watch him fight, you can see where Cotto can get beat. Both Judah and Mosley were able to take advantage of his flaws and hurt Cotto, while Mosley was also able to outbox him in big stretches.

The problem with beating Cotto is that he seems to have absolutely no emotion, and fights like a machine. If you hurt him or outbox him, he just keeps walking forward, working the body, until eventually, he either knocks you out or breaks your will. And once he breaks your will, he will likely knock you out. Since reaching the elite level, the only men he didn’t knock out were Mosley and Paulie Malignaggi, both of whom he was unable to mentally defeat.

Gomez has his work cut out for him in many ways. First off, I think he lacks the general boxing skill to outfight Cotto. Second, I think he lacks the mental strength to outlast Cotto’s machine like work.

While I do think Cotto is very beatable, I have a hard time seeing how Gomez will do it. Prediction: Cotto TKO 6.

Cintron vs. Margarito

Since meeting three years ago this month, Kermit Cintron and Antonio Margarito’s careers have gone in different directions. Margarito outclassed, outboxed, and knocked out Cintron when they first met, and became known as “the most feared man in boxing.” Cintron was seen as an overrated fighter who needed to prove himself all over.

After the April 2005 meeting, Margarito had a first round KO over Manuel Gomez, then looked far from spectacular against Joshua Clottey. Against Clottey, Margarito was clearly getting the worst of it early on, before Clottey broke his hand. At that point, Margarito took control, but you could see there were chinks in the armor. His following fight was against another hot prospect in Paul Williams. In a solid back-and-forth action fight, Williams came out on top, putting Margarito in no man’s land — to dangerous to fight, not big enough to make it worth the risk.

As for Cintron, he has now won five straight fights. The most notable of them all was against Walter Matthysse, who Cintron defeated via devastating second round knockout. In his last fight however, Cintron looked damn near awful, before finally stopping Jesse Feliciano in the 10th round. Cintron came out of that fight with an injured hand, which he says happened in the first round, which would help explain his performance. After four months off, this will be his first fight back.

It’s easy to say one of two things. Either they are still the same fighters, and we should expect a similar result (Margarito wins), or they are going in different directions, and we should expect a different result (Cintron wins). I thought going into the first fight that Cintron was a better fighter than Margarito, and probably still do. I think Margarito is a very vanilla fighter — solid chin, average speed, average power, and does nothing exceptionally well. I think Cintron has all of these qualities as well, only changing power from average to very good — with great one-punch power.

The big question in this fight is can Cintron hurt Margarito? Only two men have ever gone the distance with Cintron, and as far as I can tell, Margarito has never really been hurt. If Cintron can’t hurt Margarito, I don’t think he can win on points.

Having said that, I don’t think Margarito has the heart or desire that he had going into the first fight with Cintron. Cintron is one more win away from landing a fight with a cat like Cotto. In an otherwise pick ‘em fight, I’ll take that intangible to make my decision. Prediction: Cintron KO 8.

The Light Heavyweights

Woods vs. Tarver

This one I can sum up in one sentence: Clinton Woods is still good, and Antonio Tarver isn’t. Woods has won six straight fights, all against legitimate opponents. Tarver has won two straight against absolute nobodies — one of which he very well may have lost.

Tarver’s last meaningful win — other than the decision he stole against Rocky — was at least three years ago. But that depends on what you call meaningful. I don’t consider the third fight with Roy Jones (where I thought he was outboxed, just not outworked) really meaningful. I suppose if you made me choose, I’d go with his win over Glen Johnson in three summers ago. That’s a decent win. The only really great win he has ever had was landing a fluke punch against Roy Jones, Jr.

While this fight is a pick ‘em for gambling purposes, I think Woods has an edge in every aspect of this fight. The only thing Tarver has going for him is the same thing that got him to where he is, long and lefty. I think Woods handles this, and coasts to a victory, and Tarver will fade of into Bolivia, to quote Mike Tyson. Prediction: Woods unanimous decision.

Dawson vs. Johnson

While he may not be the most famous, Chad Dawson may be the most talented light-heavyweight in the game. Glen Johnson is a true workhorse that fights often and seemingly forever. At 39-years old, I give him credit for longevity and ageless-ness, but he’s not the best light-heavyweight in the world.

The question in this match is how Johnson’s veteran style will be handled by the relatively green Dawson. At 25, Dawson doesn’t have a whole lot on his resume yet. His best wins were against Tomasz Adamek and Eric Harding, both fights he won by wide decisions but was also knocked down in.

Johnson is crafty, and he’ll have something up his sleeve for the kid. But at the end of the night, I think 14 years is a large age difference, and Dawson will simply outbox the veteran. Prediction: Dawson unanimous decision.

The easy thing to do is for everyone to say that the season opener in Japan features the favorite to win the World Series again in the Red Sox. The hard thing to do is to make me buy into that. The Sox are a strong team, but I believe they will take a step back this year.

Curt Schilling won’t see the field until the middle of the season, Josh Beckett is already hurt, Papi and Manny limped home last year and are an injury waiting to happen this year. I see where the talent is on this team, but I think this is the year that it all falls apart — at least enough to knock them off of the top of the AL East.

I’m picking the Yankees to bounce back and take that division. There is no way they can have as many injuries as they did last year, and they are otherwise the same team that they were. They still have Pettitte, Wang, A-Rod, Jeter and the rest of the band. They should get a full season out of Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Their young guys like Melky and Cano are just going to get better, and they should have learned their lesson last year with Mussina and Damon. I like the Yanks to bounce back in 2008.

In the rest of the AL, the Tigers just look too strong for their division. They were quite good last year, and added Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. I expect them to cruise in the Central, and the Angels to take the AL West in a tightly grouped division.

In the National League, I think the Mets are the best team on paper. They should be able to not choke away the NL East, but I strongly believe that they will fail in the playoffs. I do not buy into Willie Randolph as a good manager, and I think this team will underachieve once again.

I am very interested in the NL Central. I think both the Cubs and the Brewers have playoff teams, and I can’t wait to see how that division plays out. In the NL West, I think last year’s young D’Backs team will age into a solid perennial playoff team. The addition of Dan Haren is huge. If the D’Backs can get 15 decent starts out of Randy Johnson, they win the West.

As for individuals, I think A-Rod goes back to .300/38/115, which is still pretty damn good, but I don’t think he whiffs 50 homers this year. I think Magglio Ordonez drops about 30 points off of last years average, but his doubles and RBIs will score him the MVP. Johan Santana should dominate the National League. The hitting is weaker to begin with, and now he gets to face a pitcher every nine batters. While I think that David Wright will take the MVP due to his team winning the division, I expect Hanley Ramirez to have the best statistical year in the league. If the Marlins can win 80-85 games somehow, than he has a shot at the MVP, otherwise he’ll lose it to a guy that is on a playoff team.

So, on to my official predictions for the 2008 Major League Baseball season…

Divisional Winners

AL East - New York Yankees
AL Central - Detroit Tigers
AL West - Los Anaheim Angels
AL Wildcard - Boston Red Sox

NL East - New York Mets
NL Central - Milwaukee Brewers
NL West - Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard - Chicago Cubs

Superlatives

AL MVP - Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
AL Cy Young - Eric Bedard, Mariners
AL Rookie of the Year - Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays

NL MVP - David Wright, 3B, Mets
NL Cy Young - Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
NL Rookie of the Year - Geovany Soto, C, Cubs

League Leaders

AL Batting - Ichiro, Mariners
AL Home Runs - Alex Rodriguez
AL RBI - Magglio Ordonez, Tigers

AL Wins - C.C. Sabathia, Indians
AL K’s - Eric Bedard, Mariners
AL Saves - J.J. Puts, Mariners

NL Batting - Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
NL Home Runs - Ryan Braun, Brewers
NL RBI - Matt Holliday, Rockies

NL Wins - Brandon Webb, D’Backs
NL K’s - Johan Santana, Mets
NL Saves - Kerry Wood, Cubs

Playoff Outcomes

American League

Yankees over Angels in 4
Tigers over Red Sox in 4

Tigers over Yankees in 6

National League

Cubs over Mets in 5
Diamondbacks over Brewers in 4

Cubs over D’Backs in 7

World Series

Tigers over Cubs in 5

Click the photo if you want to see perfection even bigger.